IGD has predicted the top grocery markets of the future.
 

Top Ten Grocery Markets to 2014 (€bn)

IGD forecasts show that China is set to overtake the US as the largest grocery market in the world by 2014. This figure is based on grocery retail market sizes that are nominal values at current prices and include inflation.

Although the US remains the largest single market in 2010, economic growth in emerging markets is slowly shifting the balance to the rest of the world, a trend which has been fuelled by the global credit-crunch. In 2008/09, US economic growth decelerated while China was less affected by the global economic slowdown.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, published in October 2009, forecasted a real GDP Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the US of 4.07% vs. 11.44% for China over the time period 2009-2014. It is clear therefore that China could grow nearly three times faster than the USA.

During the credit-crunch, the Chinese Government's stimulus package, combined with sustained bank lending, has buoyed up the economy and subsequently driven up private sector demand. In addition to this, consumer spend in China is increasing and the country is seeing a significant amount of investment, two areas that are further helping to fuel growth.

A fast rate of population growth is another factor that will help China reach the top spot. According to the UN's World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision China's population will reach 1.4billion by 2015. Between 2010 and 2014, China is expected to add double the amount of people than the US, 27 million new inhabitants compared to 13 million in the US.